Labour behind Libdem's in polls and now face an autumn election

Dammit, Gordon 'Clunking Fist' Brown says don't vote BNP...

... *thinks* ...

OK, if Gordon thinks the BNP are bad, then they must be good, right?

An Autumn election would be good. Hoever, i fear that on the issue of stopping the MPs from taking the golden handshake Parliament will be as powerless as it was with the RBS pension scandal and may find itself in the courts for changing contracts without finding cause to prosecute for wrong doings....im not saying i believe that to be right but just know how long the process may take.

Additionally, Brown is now desperate to say anything to quell the up rising on the way. Afraid yet again its too little too late.

Good news for Lib Dems though, perhaps now the mainstream media might actually start to sit up and listen to us a little more and then the truth may come out that we have consistantly for a number of years been shouting about policies that i know many of the british public would support.

Where's Gary then to tell us that the poll is nothing but Tory propaganda? No doubt Labour are in reality cruising to a fourth successive victory at the general election with a majority even greater than the last? And no doubt Labour are going to 'bury' the Conservatives on Thursday in the local and EU elections?

hmmmm.

Actually, all joking aside, I would'nt get too excited about this poll. As interesting a snapshot as it may be, theres not a cat in hells chance of it happening in a general election. The result will still most likely be a hung parliament-a good 100 seat gains for the Tories to become the largest party, but not quite enough for an overall majority.

The question then will be who the Lib Dems choose to put into power. Alan Johnson is already trying to woo them with an offer of proportional representation-something that my party will NEVER offer. Incidentally, its interesting isn't it how when Labour were losing in the 80s and 90s they were talking about electoral 'reform' as a means of getting them into power. And yet for the last decade in office they have dropped the pledge, only returning to it now that they look set for years in opposition again. Nobody should have any doubts that Labour's committment to preserving the history and constitution of this great country only goes as far as their own party political advantage allows. Furthermore, their committment to electoral reform is only motivated by narrow party interest and to hell with stable government or whats best for the country.

As David says, good news for the Lib Dems. But BAD news for the country I'm afraid!

Yes Shaun you are right, bad news for the country - returning to a Tory Government would a complete disaster!!!!

Especially with Mr Camoron - no substance all talk (remind how many Tories have stepped down and how much their claims total?)and steal all of the policies that everyone else has already suggested.

"The BNP are Nazi thugs in suits" (David Cameron)

"The BNP are Holocaust denying Nazi sympathisers who would have sold us out to Hitler" (Gordon Brown).

"The BNP are Nazis" (Gary Elsby)

Ho hum.

Shaun, I have always believed that Europe is the Premier League of politics and lies beyond the realms of this Country.

We have a jaundiced attitude that those in power are corrupt and those seeking election are awaiting corruption. Our attitude to Europe is corruption on a larger scale.

The truth is by far more important than that and the EU (A conservative invention and desire)should be held up as a beacon of collective unity.
Wouldn't sell papers though and certainly not the papers of the Brugges group Tories that own them.

Should we have an election because someone cleaned their moat out?
I'd like to think that politics had more depth than that.

Is Labour suffering the blues in its final year? Yes.
Will Labour win, when the question is put? Yes.
Why?
Policies declared, policies delivered and new policies offered.

The Tories are doing what is expected of them, oppose.

The time is coming shortly when the Tories will have to say what they will do and not what is wrong with what Labour has done.

TWO more Labour councillors are threatening to resign from their group ahead of a crucial meeting on its future role.
Stoke-on-Trent City Council's Labour group is expected to meet tonight to discuss newly-elected leader councillor Mike Barnes's campaign to become the overall council leader.
But instead of uniting the 15-strong group, it is rumoured that the leadership issue has caused deep

We were aware of this story actually but we were waiting for confirmation of some information.

Whats that David? So you agree that it would be bad for the country if the Lib Dems were to prop up a Tory led coalition?

I fully agree with you. We should ensure that whoever formes the next government they do so completely independently and WITHOUT Lib Dem support at all!

And if Labour want to try and fiddle the electoral system for their own party advantage, then we need to make sure everybody knows the reasons why and what they will get from a permanent Lib-Lab coalition that can never be removed from office.

The poll actually says:

35% want a General Election now.

48% Don't.

That says something different.

Shaun you should join a political party and work in their press and media department, i mean i never met anyone who can spin and turn one comment against them into something for them so professionally and totaly out of context of what the initial comment was...

To underline what i said - - a Tory Government, not a coalition, not a pr elected system... a TORY GOVERNMENT under Camoron would be a disaster.

Well it's good that the libdems are ahead of labour, given that their policies are on the whole better than labour's. It's not good that the tories are so far ahead because their policies aren't too far different to labour, only a little better and not as good as the libdems. Shaun I hope you're right about the hung parliament as this is the best outcome I'd like to see that seems at least possible.

I can't remember much about Michael Foot except that he was unpopular but at the time I quite liked him! Don't like Brown though.

It is good for a giggle that labour are suddenly talking up proportional representation now they've got so unpopular and after going nowhere near it for so many years. Personally I would like to see proportional representation just because it's more democratic. But on the other hand I like the idea of being able to elect independent MPs so any PR system I'd like to see would need a way to incorporate this.

I want a general election now - even though it won't matter a toss who I vote for in a safe labour seat. At least it will give me a chance to express a view and the general election will change the central government because other constituencies are more marginal. I'd like a local election now too please, or at least in 2010.

Now if Brown has resorted to attacking the British National Party, it really proves he has sunk beyond hope. Mark Sherratt you are right "OK, if Gordon thinks the BNP are bad, then they must be good, right?" - yes Gordon Brown's opinion - as if the electorate are going to see that as important, and if they do they'll think the opposite.

“Labour is on the side of white working class families every bit as much as anyone else in this country.” - he says. But the way labour does it is it says it listens to people but it doesn't, it preaches and dictates, along the lines of we know what's best for you, we'll listen but only if you agree with us, if you don't agree we'll impose it anyway. Now that's not being on anyone's side or treating them with any respect.

Nicky, what Labour safe seat? Are there any seats anywhere in the country now safe at all? Any party with a sitting MP has to be very wary of a voter backlash as all MPs will be tarnished, sadly.

SOT South - I would have thought Rob Flello's seat is pretty safe, he's been many thousands ahead of others in the past. His closest rival is the tories. Where are the tory voters in SOT South? They are not all in the Trentham area but I would think a fair number were and some of their votes may go elsewhere, influenced by certain local events and not much interest paid by tories centrally in what their councillors are doing locally. I think labour and tory votes will go down in SOT South but don't think other contenders, even the libdems, will get quite enough to take it. It will end up as reduced majority for Rob. I'm sure there are things in Rob's expenses people can pick at but there's no major mortgage fraud, job's for relatives or ridiculous purchases such as duck islands.

Quite possible, but may be the only one in stoke they do hold.

However, lets not forget that the full expenses will be published at end of June for every MP. Only the headliners have been exposed so far. Who knows what lays lurking ah?

If its Stoke we're talking about then I would say that both North and Central were still very reliably safe for Labour.

By contrast, South should be a potential marginal. That constituency is now mostly growing around the Trentham and Meir Park ends of the seat (both wards which the Tories made quite reliable over the last 10 years until...recent troubles of their own making). In addition, there is a sizeable Tory minority in all the other wards in the Stoke South constituency (don't forget that we won almost all of the Stoke South wards in 1992 by big majorities and only missed out on Blurton ward by a frustrating 36 votes).

In a really good general election Tory year-and with a lot of work done on the ground-the Tories should lead Labour by a good 5,000 votes throughout the Trentham/Meir Park wards. They should also be able to win a narrow lead in Weston Coyney as well as running Longton South, Longton North and Fenton very close (even if Labour win them). That then only leaves Blurton ward reliably in the Labour column in a general election year. Even there its possible that the Labour lead could be below 2,000 in a good year and then we have a Tory MP for Stoke South.

However, if we're talking nationally, then I'm afraid David is getting a bit too carried away by the polls. There are still a good MANY safe Labour seats up and down the land, make no mistake about that.

Shaun what planet you on? IN Central we were second to Labour previously and should hopefully win given the current climate and in North with the boundrary changes and my very active and honest campaign we shall also potentially win. Tories dont even come on the radar in either area.

Did you not learn anything whilst studying or was it all a waste of yet more tax payers money on another Tory project that is all spin and no substance? :-)

Answer my important point, Shaun.
The statistics your lot use to further your case have been deliberately used to mislead the reader.

We know why you lot do it but I still ask the question why they/you do it?

All I want is for Nick Clegg to come out shouting Nazis and I've got a full house!

Frankly Gary, I don't really care what the poll says about whether people want a general election or not. The fact is that we're NOT getting one until next year. No amount of whinging is going to change that.

We know that Brown thinks he's going to lose and is thus leaving it until the last possible moment, I don't blame him for that. But it would be nice to see a programme of government from the Labour Party other than just clinging to power for as long as possible.

"Shaun what planet you on? IN Central we were second to Labour previously and should hopefully win given the current climate and in North with the boundrary changes and my very active and honest campaign we shall also potentially win. Tories dont even come on the radar in either area."

I know more about the election numbers than you it seems David. If you really think that the Lib Dems are on course to win Stoke Central or North, then thats very nice for you I'm sure, but be prepared for a big dissapointment.

Actually though I never mentioned the Tories in Central or North because yes we have no chance of winning them either. I was talking only about South. Which bit of what I said are you actually taking issue with?

All of it...... you knbow more about the numbers and how the vote will than me? Hows that then? More of your self rightious highly educated claptrap?

Like you said on your other blog you havent been active in politics recently, shows in your sheer lack of understanding or ability to accept you know nothing other than to be commenting on your own opinion and not really based on facts.

As I see it, David, you say the Lib Dems are going to win a seat in Stoke-on-Trent.
Shaun is saying that the Tories stand no chance in Central or North but a possible in Stoke South.

David, you are in cloud cuckoo land.
Shaun, you are correct in only two of your three predictions.

As the superior analyst here, I can assure you of a walk over for Labour in all three Constituencies.

Your flaw is in wishful thinking and you take no heed in the swing needed to win.

I get paid for thinking ahead and for getting it mostly right for most of the time.
That's what I do.

In this instance I will charge you nothing for this free advice.

ohhh!!! PLease, no please.... stop it, me ribs,,,, oh me dinner..... god i love you Gary thats the biggest laugh i have had all week.....:-)

Next i guess you will tell us Labour will be in Government too with an increased majority!!!

The economy will get a 20% increase and natiopnal debt will be below £1 million by the end of 2010?

What ever next? Peace breaks out at the civic and all agree Alby Walker can be council leader ?/ :-)

You should write to the BBC and ITV and see if you can get a comody show Gary.

Gary Elsby: I get paid for thinking ahead and for getting it mostly right for most of the time.
That’s what I do.

Who pays you Elsby, the BMP?

The only thing you have been successful in, is giving them more seats in what was a safe labour ward.

David, I doubt that Labour will gain an increased majority in 2010 but I suspect it will be as close as it is now.
Yes, the economy will increase in value from a minus to a positive and I predict that is where we are now but the statistics will only be avaiable mid July (second half of the account).

Remember, David, this is real politics and not the gossip doing the rounds about plasma tellies and the like. Come election start up, no-one will bang on about moat cleaning, it will be focused on services and money.

National debt will be high but Conservatives and Liberals would have done the same.
They lie as they decry Labour for doing the right thing.
I see no taking to the streets because of bank bailouts and winter fuel allowances, all delivered by Labour during a Global recession.
You think I'll be quiet in an election campaign? Far from it, I'm very confident by the definition of service delivery, manifesto commitment and the difference between the three main parties in evaluating the outcome.

Alby Walker will never be Leader. He is to vacate his seat soon (forced to stand down 2010 or lose in 2011).All out elections means the end of the BNP in Stoke and an end to the multi party system that offers confusion instead of leadership. Lab/Con will dominate with a scattering of Liberal/Ind.
To suggest otherwise would be a complete dismissal of what is actually going on from Government 'intervention' to Governance recommendations.

Anglo Saxophonist:
My undersatnding of the situation is that the 'safe' Labour ward that I was born in was rendered unsafe by having no Labour councillors in it five years previous before my intention to stand as a Labour candidate.

To quote 'not the gossip doing the rounds '....

the IMF and all of the other international economists are just gossips then Gary ? :-)

I think any thought of us being in positive growth any time soon is pure dreams, i hope i am wrong but fear that we will move further into recession before we see any shoots of spring. There has been no where near enough stimulus and stick waving at the banks and financial institutes to start the grow back and when it does happen what is there left? All of the industries have now gone and the infra structures are being dismantled completely as we speak.....

PS - fair play for standing and putting up your convictions of principle in being a candidate, cant fault that.

Every indication says that the massive world wide fiscal stimulus will lead to hyper inflation sooner or later.

We are in de-flation, if economic reporting is accurate, and inflation must surely be part of the cure. The stock markets have increased by around 30% in the last six Months and exports are booming. Old cars for new (£2500 cash incentive), decried by Shaun, is alleged to be booming. All indications are that we are rapidly heading out of decline and towards recovery.

The debt is high, the IMF recognise this, we all agree and it will have to be paid back.
Increasing top rate tax on earnings to 50% is a master stoke of pre 2010 election engineering.

Someone will have to defend these people and hopefully, David Cameron will be the fall guy.

Nobody is running away from the notion that Labour has run up a big debt on behalf of the Nation and nobody within Labour is running away from economic responsibility.

I admire a Government that carries on regardless and continues to service its promises to the Nation regarding the re-distribution of wealth, as promised in the 2005 Election Manifesto.

I shall go on and say that whilst the Tories do in theory stand a chance in Stoke South, I don't think that thats particularly likely at this time either.

I will agree with Gary Elsby in this case and predict that Labour look set to hold onto all three Stoke seats fairly comfortably at the next election. Of those three seats, Stoke South will be the closest and it will be the Tories that make the running.

Sorry that you don't like it David, I'm just using my over 10 years experience in watching election trends, and my knowledge of the electoral numbers:

Stoke North- Labour majority 38.03% over the Conservatives. swing required to gain= 19.02%

Stoke Central- Labour majority 33.80% over the Lib Dems. swing required to gain= 16.90%

Stoke South- Labour majority 22.67% over the Conservatives. swing required to gain= 11.34%

The numbers speak for themselves David. The Lib Dems did extremely well in Labour held safe seats in 2005 (the Stoke Central result came on the back of that). But next year most psephologists expect the Lib Dems to fall back in a lot of those northern, safe Labour seats. Furthermore, the Lib Dems performance in Stoke-on-Trent in local elections has been declining consistantly since 2002.

Furthermore, looking at the wards that make up these three seats, the Lib Dems have a history in very few:

Stoke North- Liberal history in the Kidsgrove wards but these are still a heavy minority in the seat. No recent liberal history in Tunstall, Burselm North, Burslem South, Norton and Bradeley, Chell and Packmoor. Furthermore, the only ward that has recently voted Lib Dem is East Valley and this ward has gone Tory for the last two elections!

Stoke Central- No recent liberal history in Berryhill, Abbey Green, Bentilee, Hartshill. Strong liberal support in Northwood (well done you) and also recent patchy success in Shelton that seems to be driven by the council candidate.

Stoke South- No recent liberal history in Trentham, Blurton, Longton North, Fenton, Weston Coyney or Meir Park. Some recent support in Longton South but the liberals have now heavily fallen back there since the retirement on Ellis Bevan.

Not what I would call a great prospectus for liberal gains in the gerneral election, David.

Furthermore, since you were telling us in the Ravenscliffe by-election that the liberals were "definately going to win", and since they then went on to be humiliated, your own psephological talents should be regarded as somewhat suspect.

Gary i thinik actually the country would have been in an even worse state if the tories had been at the helm at the time of the banking crisis.

Camoron will try and lower the top rate whilst hitting the rest of us with stealth taxes, its in the tory genes to hurt the most vunrable in society whilst protecting the richest.

However, Labour are nopt completely blameless.

Shaun

You appear to have missed out the Stoke and Trent Vale area, that has repeatedly voted Lib Dem regardless of several spat's by Lib Dem councillors for the area.

I believe this is part of the Central area?

DOh!?

Gorden Browns as now got real problems, his cabinat is jumping ship, yesterday that Smith woman told him she wanted to go, and this morning Hassel Blears uped and went. MPs are droping like stones, the party are wasting time tell people that have come out and said they will go at the next elcetion that they can not run in the next elcetion, to save face. All it will take is a good beating for NEW LABOUR, and its off to the polling bothe again, and I don't think Flash Gorden will be in the running at all.

Yes you're quite right Mark I completely forgot about Stoke/Trent Vale (still one out of 20 isn't too bad :-) )

You're right to say that the ward has consistently voted Lib Dem for a number of years now, but its not quite as simple as that is it. In good years, the Lib Dems have built up majorities there in the high hundreds, but in the bad years their majorities have been as low as double or even single figures!

Also, I believe the ward voted for an Independent candidate last year didn't it?

So whilst in a general election the ward would most likely vote on balance for the Lib Dems, it wouldn't be by anything like a large margin (with Labour and the Tories both doing better in general elections in general). Certainly it wouldn't be good enough to turn Stoke Central Lib Dem unless the party could establish a previously unrecorded dominance of the area as well as in Shelton AND maintain their strong grip in Northwood AND then pull ahead in another ward like Abbey, Berryhill, Hartshill or Bentilee. Still unlikely to happen I'm afraid.

Yes David, Doh indeed!

Stranger things happen at sea and considering that not only is the economy in unprecidented times, we are now seeing a massive sea change with the electorate that could bring who knows what.... even the changes of 1979 pale into nothing compared to now.

Be prepared for surprises up and down the country, very prepared....:-)